“The China Syndrome”
Ron Ault, President
Metal Trades Department, AFL-CIO
The catastrophic melt down of a nuclear reactor is often described, as the “China Syndrome” meaning the heat of the core melting will melt and contaminate the earth all the way to China. I want to write about another catastrophic event equally as dangerous to America and the rest of the free world as a nuclear melt down- Communist China as a military threat with world domination as a goal. Due to the unprecedented foreign infusion of commercial manufacturing into China and the enormous wealth this commerce has given Communist China, China is flush with cash. When you combine to militarily beneficial technology transfers this infusion of foreign manufacturing technology has given China along with unlimited cash to buy advanced weapons….what do you have?
In the 1980’s Communist China’s military (People’s Liberation Army- PLA) was huge in numbers but was not considered a credible threat, due to outdated, old technology weapons, lack of effective doctrine and over all poor training. Even in the late 1990’s China was not considered in America’s league, militarily…. Not any more! China is a very secretive nation not given to transparency about their military or their efforts to modernize their weapons. Very little is known of today’s PLA actual capabilities, but what is known is that PRC has been on crash program to build a high tech weapons program across its Army, Air Force and Navy services. The technology transfers from foreign commercial manufacturing facilities moving to China has been an instant upgrade for the military use. Boeing, Lockheed Martin, AirBus, etc., you name the company, they have relocated and opened high technology manufacturing plants located in China to exploit cheap labor. China exploits the technology and uses that technology to upgrade its military.
Last year Communist China was the number one buyer of arms in the world. Since 1993, China has bought high technology weapons, mainly from Russia, but also from the Ukraine, Israel, France, Italy, USA, and the UK…11835 million dollars of weapons…ongoing major weapons purchase packages that are known are:
- 400 Sukhoi fighters by 2006, many upgraded for multi-role missions
- Thousands of Russian anti-air and precision ground-attack weapons for aircraft
- Many hundreds of Russian S-300 surface to air missiles
- 12 Russian KILO submarines, 8 with CLUB long-range anti-ship missiles
- Russian weapons and electronics packages for three new classes of stealthy warships
- Russian 1-meter electro-optical and radar satellites
- Assuring access to NAVSAT signals by buying a partnership in the European GALILEO
- Second batch of 20 Russian Il-76 heavy transport aircraft
During the December 2003 visit to Russia of PRC Defense Minister Cao Gangchuan, it was revealed by Russian sources that Peoples Republic of China (PRC) arms purchases from Russia would exceed $2 billion in 2004. During his December visit to Russia, Cao toured destroyer and submarine shipyards in St. Petersburg, spent the day with Sukhoi observing upgraded fighter aircraft, and advanced a range of arms sales and technology cooperation issues. It can be expected that Cao will continue to exercise significant leadership over PLA’s arms relationship with Russia and will help determine any new set of arms relationships with Europe should there be a formal end to its 1989 arms embargo.
Thanks largely to the PLA’s access to foreign technology; it will be able to gather the most serious threat to U.S. Navy carrier battle groups assembled since the Cold War. While America shrinks its carrier battle group from 12 to 10 carrier battle groups (CNO advised we need not 12 carrier battle groups, but 15) PLA is building its capability to destroy U.S. Navy carrier battle groups. By gathering this imposing force the PLA hopes to deter the U.S. Navy intervention in support of Taiwan in the event of a PLA attack, or to quickly sink a U.S. carrier in hopes of precipitating a rapid U.S. withdrawal. But at a minimum, this gathering force will make it far more difficult for the U.S. Navy to intimidate the PLA, as it did in 1996, which serves to undermine deterrence on the Taiwan Strait.
Possible Projected PLA force by 2010:
- Submarines
- 12 or more Russian KILO; 8 with CLUB anti-ship missiles
- 10 or more SONG w/Russian torpedoes
- 3 Type 093 SSN’s; possible with CLUB missiles, Russian torpedoes
- 20 or so older MING submarines
- Modern Ships defending submarine areas
- 2+ No. 170 air defense destroyers
- 2+ No. 168 air defense destroyers
- 4 Sovremenniy destroyers
- 8+ Type 054 stealth frigates
- Strike Aircraft
- 40+ SU-30MKK2; w/Kh-31A anti-ship missiles
- 70 or so SU-30MKK upgraded to MKK2 standard; w/Kh-31A anti-ship missiles
- 50+ JH7A; with Kh-31 and indigenous anti-ship missiles
- 300+ J-11/SU-27SK w/Kh-31A anti-ship missiles
Literature from China examining the weaknesses of U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups indicates this challenge for the PLA is receiving some degree of attention. Necessary space-borne sensors, like satellites, and airborne sensors like AWACS are being produced. Whether the PLA will soon begin to exercise this capability, in hopes of deterring leaders in Taipei and Washington, while also revealing methods and weaknesses, remain to be seen.
In January 2004 Taiwan Deputy Minister of Defense Chong Pin Lin offered a sober assessment of the evolving military balance on the Taiwan Strait. Lin said, “The PLA may start to surpass what we have in 2005 or between 2005 and 2008,” Lin offered a caveat that a “crossover” in the military balance did not mean the PRC leadership would “feel 100 percent confident in winning a war,” and predicted by 2010 to 2015 the PLA may have “supremacy in both qualitative and quantitative comparison of forces that it may feel confident to move.”
One important conclusion to make from the impact of foreign weapons and technologies on the modernization of the PLA’s is that it is unwise to underestimate the PLA’s potential to accumulate in the near term capabilities that can significantly impede or threaten American military power. In May 2003, then Council on Foreign Relations Task Force President Leslie Gelb spoke for the Task Force’s report on the PLA introduction, saying “the Task Force judges that if the United States continues to dedicate significant resources to improving its military forces, as expected, the balance between the United States and China, both globally and in Asia, is likely to remain decisively in America’s favor beyond the next twenty years.” Unfortunately, the U.S. has been unable to dedicate significant resources to improving its military forces, instead, we have been forced to cancel the Army’s advanced stealth helicopter “Comanche” program in its entirety, retire the U.S.S. Kennedy aircraft carrier battle group, reduce the U.S. Navy shipbuilding budget for only 4 new ships in 2005 and delay new classes of ship construction for years. The other Services have similar reductions. The war on terrorism and in Iraq is draining all the money out of our defense capability at a time Communist China is in a crash program of building its Navy on a “war footing.” By 2015, China will surpass the U.S. Navy in the number of submarines in its fleet.
Yet, DOD sees fit to prioritize its new spending this year not by funding new ship construction or helicopter procurement or even buying body armor for the troops…DOD is spending 600 million dollars to implement a new unproven personnel system for its civilian workforce (NSPS) that is essentially designed to destroy the federal employee unions.
(source- A Report for the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission of January 2004 by Richard D. Fisher, Jr., Center for Security Policy)
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Metal Trades Department, AFL-CiO • 815 16th Street, NW •Washington, DC 20006
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